SACAI - The Shift of Southern Hemisphere Storminess under Anthropogenic Climate Change around Antarctica and its Impacts

This project aims at the investigation of southern hemisphere cyclone development, its variability and extremes under present climate conditions, its possible shift under anthropogenic forcing conditions, and its impacts on the climatic system of Antarctica. By means of a multi-model ensemble the southern hemisphere cyclone development towards the end of this century will be estimated and measures of uncertainty will be deduced. This will include a special focus on extreme cyclones. Cyclone systems are, by their related transient eddies, responsible for freshwater fluxes into Antarctica, and thus contribute to the transmission of any global climate change signature towards Antarctica.

Especially, the following questions will be addressed:

What are the characteristics of SH cyclone and storm development under anthropogenic climate change and what is the range of expected changes from the perspective of state-of-the-art climate models?

What are the impacts on the Antarctic climate system caused by a shifted of the cyclonic activity over the Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change?

Additionally, investigations will be carried out estimating the impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric and ocean circulations. Therefore, the new state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean Chemistry- Climate Model (AOCCM) ECHAM5-MESSy-O will be performed and analysed. The specific model configuration allows to simulate the feedback between the Antarctic atmosphere and the Southern Ocean in a changing climate taking the vertical coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere into account, in particular the response of surface climate to the Antarctic ozone hole and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations.

Scientists

Gregor Leckebusch
Freie Universität Berlin
Institut für Meteorologie/Geowissenschaften

Ulrike Langematz
Freie Universität Berlin
Institut für Meteorologie/Geowissenschaften

Uwe Ulbrich
Freie Universität Berlin
Institut für Meteorologie/Geowissenschaften

Ulrich Cubasch
Freie Universität Berlin
Institut für Meteorologie/Geowissenschaften

Research areas

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Publications

Grieger J, Leckebusch GC, Schuster M, and Ulbrich U, 2009: Southern Hemisphere Storminess under recent and anthropogenic climate conditions based on a multi model ensemble analysis. EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, Vol. 6, EMS2009-282, EMS Annual Meeting 2009, Toulouse

Leckebusch GC, Langematz U, Grieger J, Abalichin J, Schuster M, Ulbrich U and Cubasch U, 2009: The shift of the Southern Hemisphere Storminess under Anthropogenic Climate Change around Antarctica and its Impacts. DFG SPP 1158 Workshop 2009, Hamburg

Abalichin J, Kubin A, Grieger J, Langematz U, Leckebusch GC, Joeckel P and Bruehl C, 2010: Stratospheric ozone loss and Antarctic climate change: an update from a stratosphere resolving Chemistry Climate Model simulation. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, EGU2010-918-1, EGU General Assembly 2010, Vienna

Schuster M, Wild S, Leckebusch GC, Grieger J, Ulbrich S, Pinto J, and Ulbrich U, 2010: Comparison of Southern Hemisphere cyclone tracks in ERA40 and ERA-Interim data. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, EGU2010-12706, EGU General Assembly 2010, Vienna

Grieger J, Leckebusch GC, Schuster M and Ulbrich U, 2010: Entwicklung südhemisphärischer Zyklonen unter anthropogenem Klimawandel und deren Auswirkung auf den Feuchtetransport in die Antarktis. Kurzfassungen der Meteorologentagung DACH, DACH2010-114, DACH Meteorologentagung 2010, Bonn

Grieger J, Leckebusch GC, Schuster M, and Ulbrich U, 2011: Southern Hemisphere cyclone development and transient moisture flux under recent and anthropogenic climate conditions. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, EGU2011-1316, EGU General Assembly 2011, Vienna

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Research funding organisation

German Research Foundation

Project number: LE 1865/1-1
Funding period: 2008 - 2011